Market: Winner (Draw no bet)
Bet: Pedro Munhoz
Stake: 10/10 units
Profit: +15 units
Pedro Munhoz (2.50) vs. Justin Scoggins (1.57) – UFC Bantamweight Division
Munhoz is 2-2-1 in UFC, 12-2-1 overall. Last 5: L-W-NC-L-W
Scoggins is 4-2 in UFC, 11-2 overall. Last 5: W-L-L-W-W
Munhoz (30) looked outstanding in his last fight, submitting Russell Doane with a guillotine that he set up while on Doane’s back (never seen it before). He’s a legit BW prospect that will be top 10 sooner or later in my opinion. Both UFC losses to very tough competition; Rafael Assuncao (decision) in his debut and Jimmie Rivera (split decision). Other quick UFC wins over Matt Hobar (KO) and Jerrod Sanders (submission) – the latter one was overturned in strange circumstances without Munhoz failing a drugs test (it was just flagged as “unusual”). Very well-rounded, good striker but his bread and butter is his BJJ (7/12 wins by submission). Good wins over Reginaldo Vieira and Jeff Curran prior to signing with the UFC. Trains at Kings MMA.
Scoggins (24) was set to fight Ian McCall on one of the recent cards but pulled out having struggled to make weight and immediately declared his intention to fight at BW from now on. His most recent UFC performance was an absolute clinic on top FLW prospect Ray Borg, dominating him in all aspects of MMA. Other UFC wins over Richie Vaculik (KO), Will Campuzano (decision) and Josh Sampo (decision). UFC losses to Dustin Ortiz (split decision) and John Moraga (submission). Karate striking style, utilizes lots of in and out movement and sidekicks. Also has a wrestling background. 6/11 wins by KO. Formerly at American Top Team but has now formed his own team with his brother (also an up and coming BW).
Two fighters who I believe have big futures in the UFC BW division. In fact, it’s a shame this fight happens now as in 18-24 months it could well be a battle between two top-5 BW’s.
Munhoz’s UFC career has flown under the radar and the odds for this fight reflect that. His grappling stands out but he presents a multi-dimensional threat with sharp, technical striking. In fact, a few of his submissions have come when opponents were desperately trying to take him down having been outclassed in the striking.
The way I see it is this; the striking is fairly close, Scoggins has a karate background and is a good kicker but in terms of pure hands I rate Munhoz higher. Scoggins wrestling background is cancelled out by Munhoz grappling, he will need will need to be very careful about getting caught in guillotine if opting to take this fight to the mat (we’ve already seen Scoggins lose via guillotine against a less talented grappler).
Munhoz is at Kings MMA, one of the best fight camps and one that seems to be very adept at improving its fighters. It’s also worth noting that this is Scoggins’ first fight at BW having spent his UFC career fighting smaller men at FLW. Finally, the fight takes place in Brazil, increasing the likelihood of close rounds going in Munhoz’ favour. I have Munhoz with a 50-52% chance of winning, whereas the odds give him less than 40%.