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Mixed Martial arts Mixed Martial arts » International » Welterweight

Compare Donald Cerrone vs Darren Till

Scout pick by: QI 0 comments
Market: Draw no bet Full event - Bet: Donald Cerrone - Stake: $60 - Odds: -143 - Profit: $-60

Donald Cerrone (1.70) vs. Darren Till (2.25) – UFC Welterweight Division (5 rounds)

Cerrone is 19-6 in UFC, 32-9-1 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-L-L
Till is 3-0-1 in UFC, 15-0-1 overall. Last 5: W-W-D-W-W

Donald Cerrone

Cerrone (34) was looking great at WW, winning his first four fights against Alex Oliveira (submission), Patrick Cote (KO), Rick Story (KO) and Matt Brown (KO) after moving up from LW. However, Jorge Masvidal proved to be a bad match-up, finishing him with strikes a minute into round 2. He followed that up with a good performance against Robbie Lawler, but just got edged out over three rounds of a very entertaining affair. It’s a familiar theme with Cerrone; he does very well, but stumbles when the stakes are raised. This was evident in his LW title shot against Rafael dos Anjos, who finished him in just 66 seconds. Other UFC losses to dos Anjos (decision), Anthony Pettis (KO) and Nate Diaz (decision). He also lost multiple LW title shots in WEC against Jamie Varner (decision) and Benson Henderson x2 (decision, submission). Excellent career wins over Charles Oliveira (KO), Dennis Siver (submission), Jeremy Stephens (decision), Melvin Guillard (KO), Evan Dunham (submission), Adriano Martins (KO), Edson Barboza (submission), Jim Miller (KO), Eddie Alvarez (decision), Myles Jury (decision) and Henderson (decision). Muay Thai striker with very good grappling (16/32 wins by submission). Hittable, but generally has an excellent chin (for how long this will remain the case is another question). Very active fighter, it’s typical Cerrone to take this sort of high risk/low reward fight. Trains at Jacksons MMA.

Darren Till

Till (24) has landed himself a huge fight and the opportunity to launch himself into the top 10 of the WW division. He has looked good in his return following 20 months on the shelf, winning a dominant three round decision over Jessin Ayari in May and following that up with another one-sided decision win over Bojan Velickovic last month. He won his UFC debut over Wendell Oliveira (KO) back in 2015 and was cruising against Nicolas Dalby before separating his shoulder, which forced him to cling on for a draw. Very self confident and an interesting background having gone to train full-time in Brazil shortly after turning 20 (his first 13 pro fights were all in Brazil). Elite southpaw Muay Thai striker (9/14 wins by KO), excellent counter striker although sometimes frustrating with his lack of killer instinct (you got the feeling that he really should have finished Ayari and Velickovic given how dominant he was on the feet). Cardio is a bit of a question mark, he’s been ok in his most recent bouts where he was controlling all of the action but he has never gone five rounds before (he has seen the fourth round once). His defensive grappling is also an unknown. Now back training in the UK.


There’s no doubt about it, Till is a very talented up and coming fighter and his pinpoint accurate counter striking represents a serious threat for Cerrone. However, Cerrone owns some serious advantages that lead me to believe the line is much tighter than it should be.

Cerrone is a much better grappler. His BJJ is some of the best in the UFC, let alone the WW division. We might not have seen a lot of it lately (just one Cerrone submission win in his last 12 fights). But there’s no doubt about it, if this fight goes to the ground then Till will have his hands very full. Cerrone will go into this fight believing in his striking, but his BJJ represents a very valuable plan B to fall back on. Cerrone is no elite wrestler, but he’s good at scoring opportunistic takedowns to keep his opponents guessing (he has landed takedowns against Lawler, Story, Cote and Oliveira in his current WW run). Another relevant observation is Till’s tendency to follow opponents to the ground when he has them hurt, this habit could get himself into some big trouble against an opponent as good off his back as Cerrone is.

I remain unconvinced about Till’s cardio. He is a big WW (he missed weight against Ayari) and his performance has notably slowed in each of his UFC fights to go the full three rounds. Bearing in mind, these have been fights against stylistically friendly opposition where he’s had it pretty much all his own way. Cerrone will make him work and provide a thorough examination of his endurance. Granted, Cerrone himself has not gone over three rounds since 2009, but he is proven at maintaining a torrid pace in three round fights.

This is a giant step up in competition for Till. Sure, he’s looked good so far and he does have the sort of talent that makes me think he could be a top 10 WW in the future. But to extrapolate the current body of evidence and say that Till has over 40% chance against Cerrone is dubious in my book. Any question marks surrounding Cerrone’s resilience following the Masvidal loss were answered when he took everything that an elite WW in Robbie Lawler threw at him. If it was any other fighter in Cerrone’s position then I’d have concerns about motivation versus a young, hungry prospect. But with Cerrone you know exactly what you’re getting, the guy loves to fight and treats every opponent the same. I’d point at his performances against Evan Dunham and Alex Oliveira, lower ranked fighters who he faced after previous setbacks, as examples of what he is capable of in similar spots.

UFC has done this a few times lately, giving up and coming prospects proven veteran competition before they were ready (see Edgar vs. Rodriguez, Lamas vs. Knight). In each of those examples, odds were close to or above even for the veteran with the fight itself showing these odds to represent a significant under-estimation of their chances to win. I think we might be seeing something similar here. For me, Cerrone should be a bigger favourite. I rate his likelihood of winning to be ~65%, which translates to fair odds somewhere in the 1.50-1.55 region (which was the price before the odds recently shifted towards Till). Medium stake for this one.

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  • Donald Cerrone - Darren Till
    Draw no bet Full event - Donald Cerrone Winner

    • Mixed Martial arts » International » Welterweight
    • Game Start 21/10/2017 20:00:00
    • Pick by QuidsIn 
    • Stake $30
    • Odds (1xBet): -144
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  • Donald Cerrone - Darren Till
    Draw no bet Full event - Donald Cerrone Winner

    • Mixed Martial arts » International » Welterweight
    • Game Start 21/10/2017 20:00:00
    • Pick by venhitman 
    • Stake $30
    • Odds (1xBet): -154
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  • Donald Cerrone - Darren Till
    Draw no bet Full event - Donald Cerrone Winner

    • Mixed Martial arts » International » Welterweight
    • Game Start 21/10/2017 20:00:00
    • Pick by asger 
    • Stake $100
    • Odds (1xBet): -145
    • Score: 0 - 0
    • Profit: $-100
    • See pick